The negative trend in international tourism that emerged during the second half of 2008 intensified in 2009.
In view of the rapidly deteriorating global economic situation, economic growth prospects have repeatedly been adjusted downwards over the past six months. While at the time of the previous UNWTO forecast in January, the International Monetary Fund was still counting on positive growth over 2% for the world economy in 2009, a decline of 1.3% is now expected.
Tourism is seriously impacted, given the sharp reduction in business activity, decreasing disposable income and associated increased unemployment, particularly in key tourism source markets. Exchange rate fluctuations have added to the general uncertainty and business and consumer confidence have yet to recover. Furthermore, the level of advanced bookings, coupled with the reduction in airline capacity, make recovery before 2010 difficult.
There is additional uncertainty regarding the future of the influenza A(H1N1) virus and its effect on demand in the short to medium term. It should be stressed, however, that at the moment no restrictions on international travel are recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).
Taking account of the results for the first four months of the year and the current conditions, worldwide growth in international tourist arrivals is expected to end up between -6% and -4% for the full year. The pace of decline is expected to soften in the remainder of the year, with the months May-August projected at between -6% and -4%, and September-December between -5% and -3%.
(extract by UNWTO barometer)
Destination Manager
Omero Mariani
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